Government insists supplies are sufficient, but market stakeholders warn of hoarding, flawed data, and a sowing slowdown that could push flour prices above Rs200/kg.
ISLAMABAD/KARACHI: Despite government assurances of adequate wheat availability, prices are once again on the rise, with market stakeholders questioning official data and warning of serious food security risks in the months ahead.
National Food Security and Research Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain last week asserted that Pakistan had 33.47 million tonnes of wheat against a national requirement of 33.58m tonnes — a marginal shortfall of just 0.11m tonnes. Chairing the 8th Wheat Board meeting, he ruled out imports, insisting existing stocks were sufficient to meet demand.
But traders and millers dispute this assessment. Karachi Wholesalers Grocers Association (KWGA) Chairman Rauf Ibrahim estimated the actual crop size at 29–30m tonnes, noting that 3–4m tonnes had already been diverted to livestock feed. He said the government’s figures also included 400,000–500,000 tonnes of leftover stock from last year, casting further doubt on the official tally.
“The disconnect between rising prices and claims of ample stocks is glaring,” Rauf said, criticising the decision to suspend wheat procurement and remove the support price under the IMF programme. He argued that the policy shift had created a free-market environment benefiting hoarders, speculators, and flour millers — while leaving consumers vulnerable.
Without official procurement, flour millers no longer have access to government quotas that previously helped stabilise the market. Farmers who sold wheat at Rs2,200 per 40kg are now facing losses, while private silos continue to accumulate stocks. If unchecked, Rauf warned, flour prices could exceed Rs200 per kg in the coming months.
A flour miller echoed the concerns, suggesting the true crop size may be even lower — around 28m tonnes — and raised fears that flooding in Punjab may have damaged carryover stocks being counted in the government’s estimates.
Analysts believe the rebound in wheat prices could still provide an incentive for farmers in the upcoming Rabi season. Asad Ali of Topline Securities said the recovery might improve sowing sentiment after depressed returns in the previous cycle. Agricultural growth slowed sharply to 0.6pc in FY25 from 6.4pc in FY24, as adverse weather, high input costs, and water shortages squeezed farmers. Major crop output fell 13.5pc year-on-year, with wheat production down 9pc.
According to Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), farmers lost an average of Rs10,695 per acre this year compared with profits of Rs13,572 per acre last season. The State Bank of Pakistan has also projected an 11pc decline in wheat production for FY25 due to weak profitability, which discouraged sowing. Although current wheat prices remain 43pc below last year’s peak of Rs1,256 per 10kg, analysts say the latest rebound offers struggling farmers some relief. But they stress that unless the government curbs hoarding and ensures better market regulation, rising prices will deepen the food security challenge.
