From Brazil’s export revival to firm US pricing and resilient Asian demand, poultry markets enter 2026 with steadier fundamentals—but persistent risks
As 2026 approaches, global poultry markets are settling into a new phase marked by firmer demand, improving supply discipline, and region-specific growth drivers. After a volatile 2025, the outlook suggests fewer price shocks, but continued sensitivity to disease risks, feed costs, and trade flows.
Brazil is set to anchor global supply growth.
Brazil’s poultry sector is expected to expand output in 2026 as breeding stocks increase and export channels reopen. Production is forecast to rise to 15.8 million metric tons, supported by competitive feed costs and strong international pricing. The lifting of bans by key markets such as China and the EU late in 2025 has restored momentum, while demand across Latin America—particularly Mexico—remains robust. Domestic consumption is also climbing, indicating balanced growth rather than export-led strain. Exchange rates may temper volumes, but the overall export outlook remains constructive.
The US market looks steadier, with poultry gaining ground on beef.
In the United States, chicken prices are expected to remain firm in 2026, driven less by supply disruptions and more by protein substitution. With beef inventories at multi-year lows and prices elevated, chicken is positioned to capture a larger share of consumer demand. Hatchery capacity has been running near full utilization, and with no major plant expansions scheduled, supply growth appears measured. Cold storage stocks are below the five-year average, reducing the risk of oversupply. While HPAI continues to pose episodic export volatility, regional outbreaks are unlikely to disrupt national supply materially.
North Asia’s import appetite remains resilient.
Across Japan and South Korea, elevated retail prices and constrained domestic production are supporting import demand into early 2026. Japan’s price gap between local and imported chicken is incentivizing buyers to turn to overseas suppliers, even as Brazil’s boneless leg exports face labor and cost constraints. In South Korea, seasonal demand—boosted by international sporting events—and poultry’s price competitiveness versus beef and pork are expected to lift imports. In China, resumed trade with Brazil will support shipments of specialty cuts, while domestic poultry production is projected to grow on the back of favorable feed prices.
Middle East demand outpaces production, sustaining imports.
In the UAE, consumption growth continues to outstrip domestic output despite rising local production, keeping re-exports and imports—particularly from Brazil—central to supply. Saudi Arabia is advancing toward higher self-sufficiency through significant investment, yet consumption still exceeds production, ensuring ongoing import requirements. Disease risk remains a wildcard for supply continuity across the region.
Europe faces margin pressure amid competition and disease.
European producers enter 2026 confronting a tougher environment: high production costs, ongoing H5N1 outbreaks, and intensified competition from Ukrainian imports and Brazil’s return to EU markets. These factors are expected to weigh on margins even as demand holds.Bottom line:
Global poultry markets in 2026 are characterized by broader demand, more disciplined supply growth, and fewer extremes than recent years. However, disease outbreaks, feed-price movements, and trade policy shifts will continue to shape regional outcomes—rewarding producers with resilient operations and diversified market access.
