Rabobank raises its 2026 global poultry growth forecast from 2.5%-3% as China, EU, Brazil, South Africa and the Philippines drive expansion, but warns that oversupply, disease, trade disruptions and weaker purchasing power could pressure producers.
Global poultry production is expected to grow faster than previously forecast in 2026, with Rabobank raising its outlook to around 3%-3.5% as strong production gains across several major markets and poultry’s competitive position against other animal proteins support continued expansion.
The revised outlook, highlighted by WATT Poultry, represents an increase from Rabobank’s earlier forecast of 2.5%-3% growth. The upward revision reflects stronger-than-expected industry performance, particularly during the first quarter, when production in many major poultry markets increased by more than 5% year over year.
China, the European Union, South Africa, the Philippines and Brazil are among the markets contributing to the stronger growth outlook, according to RaboResearch’s Global Poultry Quarterly for the third quarter of 2026.
Poultry gains from price advantage
One of the main factors supporting the global poultry market is chicken’s relatively competitive price compared with other animal proteins, particularly beef. This price advantage has encouraged consumers in a number of markets to shift toward poultry, helping sustain demand even as economic conditions become more challenging.
However, Rabobank cautioned that stronger production does not necessarily translate into stronger profitability. In some markets, supply is beginning to grow faster than demand, creating the risk of oversupply, lower prices and tighter margins for producers.
The pressure could become more pronounced in markets where consumers are increasingly price-sensitive, particularly lower-income markets in southern Asia and parts of Africa. Economic weakness could limit consumers’ ability to absorb additional poultry production despite the protein’s affordability advantage.
Global poultry trade remains resilient
Despite geopolitical and economic uncertainties, international poultry trade has also shown renewed strength.
Global poultry trade increased by about 3.5% year over year in the first quarter of 2026, following several weaker years, according to Rabobank. Trade flows have remained resilient despite geopolitical disruptions and logistical risks affecting international supply chains.
The Gulf region has continued to receive poultry supplies through major exporters and trading hubs including Brazil, Ukraine, Turkey, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Oman. Rabobank has also identified geopolitical developments, shipping conditions and energy-market volatility as important factors that could influence future poultry and feed trade.
China changes the global poultry trade map
China is emerging as one of the most important structural changes in the global poultry market.
Rabobank said China has moved from being the world’s largest chicken importer toward becoming a significant net exporter. Local chicken production is expected to grow strongly again in 2026, with expanding domestic output increasingly supporting exports.
The shift is significant because China is not simply adding production to the global market; it is also changing established trade flows. Rising Chinese exports could increase competition for traditional suppliers in markets across Asia, the Middle East and other developing regions.
The broader trend also reflects a growing emphasis on food security. Countries in parts of Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia are increasingly seeking to strengthen domestic poultry production rather than relying entirely on imported chicken. Rabobank describes this transition as a move toward more localized, or “local-to-local,” poultry supply chains.
Brazil remains a critical global supplier
Brazil continues to play a central role in international poultry trade and remains the world’s leading chicken exporter.
At the same time, changes in Brazilian access to the European market could have significant consequences for global trade flows. Rabobank warned that restrictions on Brazilian poultry products entering the EU could push European prices higher while increasing pressure on Brazilian prices and redirecting demand toward alternative suppliers such as Thailand and China.
The potential disruption comes at a time when the European poultry sector is already expanding. EU chicken placements during the first four months of 2026 were reported to be 6% higher than during the same period of 2025, while chicken consumption is expected to increase further during the year.
That combination of rising domestic production and possible changes in import availability could make supply management increasingly important for European producers.
Disease remains a major risk to production and trade
The stronger global outlook does not eliminate significant animal-health risks.
Highly pathogenic avian influenza and Newcastle disease remain important threats to poultry production and market stability. Disease outbreaks can reduce flock numbers, disrupt production and trigger restrictions on movement and international trade, creating sudden changes in regional supply and prices.
Rabobank also identified the potential spread of bird flu into the Southern Hemisphere as a risk for major exporting countries, including Brazil. A significant outbreak in a major exporting market could have consequences well beyond the affected country by disrupting established global supply chains.
The global breeding-stock market is another constraint. Tight availability of breeding stock could limit how rapidly producers are able to expand output, even where market conditions remain favorable.
Feed costs and geopolitical uncertainty add pressure
Feed remains a central consideration for poultry producers because changes in grain and oilseed prices can quickly affect production costs.
Rabobank identified possible El Niño effects, geopolitical uncertainty and volatility in energy and shipping markets among the factors that could influence feed costs and poultry profitability during the remainder of 2026.
These risks are particularly important because poultry’s competitive advantage depends partly on maintaining an affordable price relative to beef and other proteins. If feed, energy, transportation or disease-control costs rise sharply, producers may face pressure to raise prices at a time when consumers are becoming more price-sensitive.
Growth requires greater supply discipline
The overall outlook for global poultry remains positive, but Rabobank’s assessment carries an important warning for producers: faster production growth must be matched by disciplined supply management.
The industry is entering a period in which demand remains supportive, but oversupply is becoming a growing concern in some markets. Producers therefore face the challenge of balancing expansion with market demand rather than pursuing volume growth without regard to pricing and margins.
For the global poultry industry, the 2026 outlook therefore presents a mixed picture. Chicken consumption is expanding, international trade remains resilient and production forecasts have been upgraded, but disease threats, geopolitical instability, feed-cost uncertainty, breeding-stock constraints and increasing competition could make the second half of the year more difficult. The revised 3%-3.5% growth forecast signals continued expansion of the global poultry sector, but the ability of producers to convert that growth into sustainable returns will increasingly depend on efficient production, strong biosecurity, careful supply planning and the ability to respond quickly to changing trade and consumer conditions.
