AVN Web Desk
MOSCOW: Russian foreign trade could plummet by 10-25pc in the next six months due to recent US sanctions that have restricted local firms’ ability to make and collect payments in dollars and Euros, says Pavel Ryabov, an agricultural analyst, in a post on the Russian news outlet Dairy News.
The new sanctions, imposed on June 12, have suspended dollar and euro trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange. While over-the-counter transactions remain available, they are expected to increase costs for Russian businesses and individuals, affecting both importers and exporters with higher prices.
Several Russian business organizations have voiced concerns about the impact of these sanctions. The Russian Union of Grain Exporters expressed worries about the supply of Russian food for dollars and euros but noted that the infrastructure for exporting in roubles is already in place.
In early 2024, Soyuzmoloko, Russia’s largest dairy industry organization, had forecasted a 15-18pc increase in dairy exports. However, the new US sanctions have cast doubt on this outlook. Ryabov warned that the difficulties in foreign trade could lead to a shortage of imports and a slowdown in investment activity.
In March 2024, Soyuzmoloko estimated that Russian dairy firms imported foreign equipment and technologies worth Rub 8.7 billion (US$98 million), a significant increase from Rub 3.8 billion (US$43 million) the previous year. This surge in deliveries was attributed to businesses circumventing restrictive measures.
There are also concerns about potential dependence on China as Russia’s primary trade partner, amid risks associated with deteriorating Russia-China trade relations.
