Record 14.3 million tonnes output in 2025 drives global poultry market shifts as oversupply pushes prices down, with recovery expected after seasonal demand rebound
Brazil’s poultry industry has recorded a historic production milestone, even as global concerns over avian influenza continue to influence meat markets worldwide.
According to data cited by the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea), based on figures from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), Brazil produced a record 14.3 million tonnes of chicken meat in 2025, marking a 4.2% increase compared to 2024. This represents the strongest annual growth since 2021.
The record output was achieved despite a reported bird flu case in the country last year, highlighting the resilience and scale of Brazil’s poultry production system, one of the largest exporters of chicken meat globally.
Strong quarterly performance drives annual record
Production momentum remained strong throughout the year, with the fourth quarter of 2025 alone reaching 3.65 million tonnes, the highest quarterly output ever recorded in the IBGE series.
This reflects:
- A 1.5% increase compared to the previous quarter
- An 8% rise compared to the same period in 2024
Industry analysts attribute this surge to improved production efficiency, strong export demand, and expanded slaughter capacity across Brazil’s integrated poultry supply chain.
Oversupply pushes prices downward
Despite record production levels, the rapid increase in supply has created significant downward pressure on domestic prices.
Frozen chicken meat prices in the Greater São Paulo wholesale market have fallen by 10.5% since the beginning of 2026, reaching their lowest monthly average in real terms since July 2023, according to Cepea.
The price decline reflects a classic supply-demand imbalance, where production growth has temporarily outpaced domestic consumption and export absorption.
Market outlook: recovery expected after seasonal demand shift
Looking ahead, analysts expect a shift in market dynamics over the coming months.
Cepea projects that slaughter activity may slow in the next quarter, which could reduce supply levels and help stabilize prices. At the same time, the end of the Lent season is expected to boost consumer demand, particularly in domestic and export markets.
Together, these factors are likely to support a gradual price recovery in the short term, although market volatility may persist depending on global trade conditions and feed costs.
Global significance for poultry markets
Brazil remains one of the world’s leading poultry exporters, meaning fluctuations in its production and pricing have direct implications for global chicken supply chains, including importing countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The current situation highlights a broader global trend in the poultry sector:
rapid production expansion, intermittent disease risks, and increasingly volatile pricing cycles.
