Expansion by large integrated poultry companies, new production capacity and surging exports prompt USDA to upgrade China’s 2026 chicken production outlook as higher domestic supply softens meat prices.
BEIJING: China is on track to produce more chicken meat than previously expected in 2026 after a strong start to the year, driven by expanding industrial-scale poultry production, new processing capacity and rising exports, according to the latest annual assessment by the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS).
The revised outlook follows official data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showing poultry meat production reached 7.01 million metric tons during the first quarter of 2026, representing a 9.3% increase compared with the same period last year. Poultry slaughter also rose 7.5% year-on-year, highlighting sustained growth across the country’s broiler industry.
According to the USDA FAS, stronger-than-expected production reflects continued expansion by China’s large vertically integrated poultry companies, the commissioning of new production facilities and robust export demand, all of which have prompted the agency to revise its 2026 production forecast upward.
The agency expects China’s chicken meat production to continue increasing into 2027, forecasting output of approximately 19 million metric tons, supported by ongoing investment in white broiler production and modern poultry infrastructure.
Rising supply puts pressure on chicken prices
While higher production strengthens domestic food security and export potential, it has also increased supply in the local market, contributing to softer chicken prices throughout 2026.
Analysts note that declining pork prices have intensified this trend because pork remains China’s dominant animal protein. As pork becomes more affordable, competition between the two proteins has placed additional downward pressure on chicken prices.
Exports continue to gain momentum
The USDA also highlighted significant growth in China’s poultry exports. During the first five months of 2026, China’s chicken meat exports climbed 51% year-on-year to approximately 546,000 metric tons, supported by competitive pricing and expanding access to overseas markets.
Japan and Hong Kong continue to be major destinations for Chinese poultry products, while exports are also expanding to Southeast Asia, Russia, the Middle East and parts of Africa as demand grows for competitively priced chicken meat.
Imports expected to decline
Despite recovering market access for some international suppliers, China is expected to import less chicken meat in 2026 because domestic production is expanding faster than consumption.
The USDA said stronger local supply has reduced dependence on imports, prompting the agency to lower its import forecast while increasing expectations for exports.
Modern poultry industry driving growth
China’s poultry industry has undergone rapid modernization over the past decade, with large integrated producers investing heavily in genetics, automated production systems, biosecurity and processing facilities. These investments have improved productivity and enabled producers to meet growing domestic demand while strengthening their competitiveness in international markets.
Official economic data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics also showed poultry production remained one of the strongest-performing segments of the country’s livestock sector during the first half of 2026, with poultry output rising more rapidly than several other animal protein categories. The latest USDA outlook suggests China will remain one of the world’s leading chicken producers, with expanding production capacity expected to support domestic food security, increase export opportunities and further reshape global poultry trade over the coming years.
